Recently in the news, you may have heard the term “Super El-Niño” becoming more viral, with researchers claiming it will be one of the strongest on record . Before jumping to the claim that this is caused by global warming, it is important to look at what exactly is an El-Niño event, and what are the global impacts? El-Niño simply refers to the Pacific Ocean water temperature, and if it is warmer than usual, or La Niña, colder than usual. In normal conditions, strong trade winds blow east to west along the equator, pushing warm water toward Australia and Indonesia. All of this warm water piles up in the western Pacific, allowing colder water that is rich in nutrients to rise near Ecuador. This process is called upwelling. The warm water near Indonesia causes frequent rain and thunderstorms. During an El Niño event, these trade winds weaken, sometimes even reversing. When this happens, that warm water that piled up near Indonesia starts moving back east. Sea surface temperatures rise across the central and eastern Pacific, and the upwelling weakens. This leaves the overall sea surface temperature warmer than usual. Figure 1. Comparison of normal Pacific Ocean conditions and El Niño conditions. Source: TIME But why does this matter globally? As the ocean warms the air above it, this air rises, creating ideal conditions for thunderstorms and heavy rain. With this super El-Niño, the ocean is warmer than usual by 2° C or more. Increased flooding in western South America, including Peru and Ecuador, due to heavier rainfall. Wetter winters across the southern United States, particularly California and the Gulf Coast. Warmer-than-average winters across the northern United States and Canada. Severe drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia. When there is a significant climatological event seen, many people jump to the conclusion that this is a part of climate change. However, is this really true? The short answer is no, it is not. There have been three widely recognized Super El Niño events since reliable observations began: 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The process of this change in ocean temperature is called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been around for thousands of years. Researchers are currently studying how global warming may affect the frequency of these extreme El Niño events, their intensity, and their rainfall and temperature impacts. It it important for companies to know what period of ENSO we are in, as this has an impact on all aspects of business. The effects of this extraordinary event will be seen globally, with more natural disasters, agricultural price shocks, and even greater monetary losses for the insurers and homeowners.